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Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition, by Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius, Werner Rothengatter
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Promoters of multi-billion dollar land-use development megaprojects systematically misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get them approved and built. This book not only explores these issues, but suggests practical solutions drawing on theory and scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations and five continents. It is of interest to students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians and concerned citizens.
- Sales Rank: #351121 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Cambridge University Press
- Published on: 2003-03-10
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.98" h x .51" w x 5.98" l, .80 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 215 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
"Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition provides a fascinating look at the pervasiveness of misinformation in the planning of major construction projects and the systematic bias of such misinformation towards justifying project implementation. The power of its analysis is vastly reinforced by the range of cases examined, extending over 70 years and five continents. An extraordinary accomplishment, it will doubtless serve as the standard reference on this topic for many years to come." Alan Altshuler, Professor of Urban Policy and Planning, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
"Anyone concerned with public works projects, planning, and ethics in public policy should read this book. It provides a genuinely original perspective on why large complex projects often cost much more than their planners say they will and treats this problem as a fascinating puzzle involving technical methods, professional ethics and the politics of urban decision making." Martin Wachs, Director of Institute of Transportation Studies, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Professor of City and Regional Planning, University of California at Berkeley
"Flyvbjerg's damning analysis concentrates on a series of financial nightmares that should bring even the most casual reader out in a sweat." New Scientist
"Life is too short to read every tome penned by Scandinavian and German social scientists. But Megaprojects and Risk, written by Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, is a cracker. In lurid and startling detail it examines dozens of vast construction schemes around the world." Times Online
"The book is provocative throughout, documenting the often dismal performance history of these huge projects and calling attention to the forces that make reform a formidable undertaking." Civil Engineering
"By vividly illustrating the dynamics of megaprojects, Flyvbjerg and his colleagues clearly and acutely identify the problem and propose sensible solutions. Hopefully, their work will receive the kind of attention that it deserves from planners, decision makers, technical experts and the public, stimulate discussion on how to resolve what is likely to be an ever growing problem and lead to the adoption, by at least a few countries, of a new approach to megaproject decision making." Journal of Planning Education & Research
"With his two co-authors, Flyvbjerg has produced a clear and lucid account of the economic, environmental, and social impacts of megaprojects...a lucid critique of existing norms is combined with practical suggestions for improvement." Canadian Journal of Urban Research, Carolyn Whitzman
About the Author
Bent Flyvbjerg is Founding Chair of Major Programme Management at Oxford University's Saïd Business School and Director of the Oxford Centre for Major Programme Management. Previously, he was Professor in the Department of Planning and Development at Aalborg University. He is the author of the highly successful Making Social Science Matter (Cambridge, 2001) and Rationality and Power (1998).
Nils Bruzelius is Associate Professor at Stockholm University and an independent consultant on transport and planning.
Werner Rothengatter is Head of the Institute of Economic Policy Research and of the Unit on Transport and Communication at the University of Karlsruhe, Germany. He is also the president of the World Congress on Transport Research Society (WCTRS).
Most helpful customer reviews
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
A really interesting read about the finance of large projects
By sien
Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition (2003) by Bent Flyvbjerg is a dry but interesting look at how expensive projects are chronically over budget, under utilised and delivered late.
The book gives the strong impression that the big budget government and private projects like the Channel Tunnel, the Øresund Bridge and many rail projects are chronically misrepresented in financial modelling that precedes them.
Flyvberg and his team have analysed many big public infrastructure projects and have found that 9 out 10 cost more than planned, 9 out of 10 are late and 9 out of 10 are not utilised as much as projected. Roads projects, are, however, quite often used more than expected It’s a terrible record. The record of rail projects is the worst, Average traffic on rail projects was 61% of the forecast level and sometimes as low as 25%.
After looking at these projects the authors found that those involved in making plans had lots of pressure put on them to cook forecasts. Essentially the promoters of the projects are dishonest and are either after political gain or are set to build the project and personally benefit with the risk generally taken up by taxpayers.
The book suggests a framework for better assessment with a range of forecasts made and investigation of how close the forecasts are to what happens after the fact. They also suggest that private money be solicited and made to take some of the risk. If it can’t be obtained it is a good suggestion that the project was not really viable.
It could be argued that the projects that are not viable but that are huge achievements should be undertaken anyway. This is a legitimate point. However, deception in the initial phases should still be reduced as much as possible. Part of the problem is described by the authors as being that projects are sometimes chosen on the basis of who has the most dishonest figures.
It’s a really interesting book that anyone who believes in infrastructure deficits and that more public spending in infrastructure is required should definitely read.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Zero Management Skills On Public Projects
By Chickster
Proof that there is absolutely zero management skill out there. Coupled with the political bent on these megaprojects provides an atmosphere which is likely to continue with the terrible results we see. Worst case ever was the H3 freeway on Oahu; something like 17 or 18 times the original estimate. With so much history you would think the process should have improved. Now what was that Einstein adage about doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. If we had operated this way during the height of the space race, we wouldn't have had enough money in the USA to pay the bill. For shame!!!
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Worthy and crucial reading for transportation planners
By Deron Lovaas
Megaprojects are, too often, costly and controversial boondoggles. This global examination of issues of risk, transparency, financing and accountability - or rather lack thereof - and the remedies proposed is a major contribution to the causes of reducing damage and waste and boosting performance outcomes of major investments. Highly recommended.
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